Labour launched its local elections campaign in Dudley last month
By Joshua Nevett
BBC political reporter, Coventry and Warwickshire
For more than a decade, the Warwickshire towns of Nuneaton and Bedworth have been electoral bogeymen to Labour.
The momentous victory of Nuneaton’s MP Marcus Jones in 2015 has been cemented into Conservative folklore.
Former Prime Minister David Cameron said holding the marginal seat was the moment he knew the Conservatives had won the general election that year.
And since then, local elections to Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council have only compounded Labour’s demons.
The Conservatives won a landslide victory to take control of the council in 2021, leaving a rump of Labour councillors.
This year, with the Conservatives sagging in national polls, Labour has high hopes of winning back the council in May’s local elections.
The constituency of Nuneaton has historically been considered a bellwether, meaning it usually votes for the winning party in general elections.
Labour says it’s fighting for every vote this May in Nuneaton and Bedworth, towns which both strongly voted for Brexit.
But there’s one particular group of voters who could be important to both this result and the general election expected this year.
ONS data show women in their 30s who work in retail make up a large part of the area’s population. And some of them are shopping around for a party to vote for.
Kirsty Marshall describes herself as a floating voter
Kirsty Marshall, 38, works at Joco Gifts in Nuneaton town centre and says she hasn’t made her mind up yet.
“I sway between [Conservative and Labour] but I do think the Conservatives have got a little bit more to offer us at the moment in the town,” she explained.
She gives more weight to local issues in all ballots – but what does she think of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak?
“I think he needs to join the real world and see how everybody lives, because if you’re living hand to mouth, I don’t think he really understands,” she said.
Her friend Kayleigh Robinson, 33, works at Savers and says town centre regeneration is important to her.
The council scaled back its town regeneration plan by £40m this year, claiming not doing so “would have bankrupted us”.
“There’s hardly any shops,” Ms Robinson said. “It just feels depressed – there’s just nothing.”
Rebecca Thackwray says she’s concerned about the state of the NHS
Rebecca Thackwray, in the same age group, has been listening to the political mood music nationally.
The mum-of-one, 39, works for the NHS and is concerned about cuts to health services.
“And nationally as well, I haven’t felt like we’ve been going in a particularly good direction, or focusing on the right things,” she told the BBC.
The votes of women like these are seen as an important barometer of political support.
A Labour think tank says the so-called Stevenage Woman, a young, suburban female voter who’s hard-working but worried about the cost of living and switched off from politics, will be the key to Sir Keir Starmer’s hopes of winning the next election.
Patrick English, YouGov’s director of political analytics, says Nuneaton is “made up of exactly this type of voter”.
“They’re looking for government to provide solutions for them,” he said. “They’re quite prevalent in Nuneaton and all of these other Midlands swing seats as well.”
But are local political leaders tempting Nuneaton Woman?
Kris Wilson says some voters fear “Starmer-geddon”
The council’s Conservative leader Kris Wilson insists “there is no love for Labour locally”.
He says Sir Keir is “no Tony Blair”, adding: “People don’t trust him and said to me ‘we can’t risk going over to Starmer-geddon’.”
Chris Watkins says the local Labour Party has changed under his leadership
Labour’s local group leader Chris Watkins says his party is “doing things differently” and putting town centre regeneration at the heart of its offer.
“We do need to see more retail shops coming into Nuneaton and Bedworth – so that’s what we’re trying to do.”
Keith Kondakor says the Greens have been effective in opposition
The Greens insist a vote for them isn’t a wasted one.
Their local group leader Keith Kondakor says his party has been very effective at holding both Labour and the Conservatives to account.
“At the moment we’re more of an opposition than Labour,” he said.
All eyes were on Nuneaton in 2015 – and they will be once again this year as they look for hints of what’s to come nationally.
