A warmer week of weather – but will it last?
Spring weather can be fickle and it has certainly felt that way lately.
Fleeting spells of warmth and sunshine have alternated with cloudier interludes and drenching downpours.
Over the next few days you might finally be able to leave the umbrella at home and perhaps even fire up the barbecue with more dry, sunny weather in the forecast and temperatures as high as 24C.
But this burst of spring warmth might not be here to stay.
A turbulent bank holiday
You might be hoping for something drier after the bank holiday weekend which was dominated by low pressure – meaning a very unstable atmosphere.
Heavy showers and violent thunderstorms developed, bringing flash flooding for some. Parts of eastern Scotland had half a month’s worth of rain in just a few hours.
Image source, BBC Weather Watchers / Tyke
Muddy floodwater flowed across roads in Auchleven, Aberdeenshire on Sunday
That was not the whole story though. There were also some sunny spells which lifted temperatures close to 21C.
And as low pressure retreats and high pressure builds the thermometer is expected to climb further during the rest of this week.
Will it be sunny?
The next few days won’t necessarily bring unbroken sunshine. In fact there will be large areas of cloud at times as well as some morning mist and fog.
Weak weather fronts will allow splashes of rain to move across northern Scotland, and perhaps briefly Northern Ireland too.
But as high pressure becomes more firmly established we will start to see more strong sunshine with high UV levels. Temperatures will also rise, giving us our first spell of widespread warmth this year.
By Friday and Saturday all four nations of the UK can expect temperatures into the low 20s Celsius, peaking at 23 or 24C in south-east England. Sheltered spots in north Wales and northern Scotland could see similar values.
Image source, BBC Weather Watchers / Matt B
Blue skies will feature at the coast – but so could mist and a sea breeze
Before you head to the beach it might be a good idea to check the detailed forecast online as patches of mist may lap on to the coast from time to time. Sea breezes are likely to develop, suppressing temperatures a little.
Coastal sea breezes tend to be a summer phenomenon, typical of long, warm, sunny days. So is this the start of a lengthy spell of spring warmth that will last into summer?
Signs of a breakdown
Our area of high pressure will block the progress of rain-bearing weather systems for a while with the jet stream diverting them away from our shores.
But there are indications that this will start to change with frontal systems breaking through that block and re-introducing wet weather from the west – perhaps as early as Sunday.
That would leave us with something cooler and more unsettled during next week.
However computer forecast models can struggle with these scenarios, sometimes predicting that high pressure will retreat more quickly than in reality.
From Sunday the UK will be in a “battleground” between low pressure and high pressure
So while we are fairly confident that wet weather will return, there is uncertainty about the timing.
You can keep up to date with the temperature ups and downs – and the chances of rain – in your area on the BBC Weather app.
And as we head towards summer you can check the long-range forecast with our monthly outlook.
