Will the warmth last this weekend?
Elizabeth Rizzini & Ben Rich
BBC Weather
Spring weather can be fickle and it certainly felt that way at the beginning of May.
Spells of warmth and sunshine alternated with cloudier interludes and torrential downpours though the bank holiday weekend. Some parts of eastern Scotland saw half a month’s worth of rain in just a few hours.
Since then, high pressure has been building in from the west which has led to dry, settled, sunny conditions for most this week.
But this burst of spring warmth might not be here to stay.
A barbecue weekend?
High pressure means a stable atmosphere and the dry weather is set to stick around for much of the weekend. It won’t all be sunny skies however.
There could still be some rain across northern Scotland and even Northern Ireland for a while and with fairly moist air there will be some low cloud, mist and fog to start the day. There could be more cloud developing too with an easterly wind across East Anglia and south-east England.
But if you are looking to sizzle some sausages on Saturday, then the barbecue certainly beckons. For most, there will be strong sunshine with high UV levels so be careful not to sizzle yourself too.
Temperatures will also rise, giving us our first spell of widespread weekend warmth this year.
Image source, BBC Weather Watchers / Highland Rose
The highest UK temperature so far this year was 24.1C on 2 May in Highland, Scotland
Beach day anyone?
On Friday and Saturday all four nations of the UK can expect temperatures into the low 20s Celsius, peaking at 23 or 24C in south-east England, with 25C possible.
Sheltered spots in north Wales and northern Scotland could see similar temperatures, meaning that all four nations could potentially see their warmest day of the year so far.
Sunday could still be warm but keep the umbrella handy.
Before you head to the beach it might be a good idea to check the detailed forecast online as patches of mist may lap on to the coast from time to time. Sea breezes are likely to develop, suppressing temperatures a little.
Coastal sea breezes tend to be a summer phenomenon, typical of long, warm, sunny days. So is this the start of a lengthy spell of spring warmth that will last into summer?
Image source, BBC Weather Watchers / Matt B
Blue skies will feature at the coast – but so could mist and a sea breeze
Signs of a breakdown
Our area of high pressure will block the progress of rain-bearing weather systems for a while with the jet stream diverting them away from our shores.
But there are indications that this will start to change with frontal systems breaking through that block and re-introducing wet weather from the west as early as Sunday.
At the moment it looks like a sunny start, with areas of mist and fog for some, and the risk of thunderstorms developing in the south-west and west of the UK. Here it will feel cooler at 16-19C. Eastern areas will still be warm with a possible 24C again in south-east England, but with the threat of heavy showers later.
Monday looks decidedly wet.
So it’s back to the starting blocks weather-wise next week with a trend for cooler, more unsettled conditions.
However computer forecast models can struggle with these scenarios, sometimes predicting that high pressure will retreat more quickly than in reality.
From Sunday the UK will be in a “battleground” between low pressure and high pressure
At the moment the weather models are changing frequently so the best advice for any late spring outdoor engagements will be to keep a close eye on the latest forecast on your BBC weather app.
And as we head towards summer you can check the long-range forecast with our monthly outlook.
