Dispatches from Ukraine. Day 947.
Zelenskyy’s U.S. Visit.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the White House during his U.S. visit this week to build support for his “victory plan,” as well as having a last-minute meeting with Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump. Zelenskyy presented his victory plan to President Joseph Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on Sept. 26, but media reports suggest it did not receive positive feedback from officials who reviewed it beforehand. The plan’s primary objective is to pressure Russia into negotiations within the next three or four months, according to Forbes Ukraine. It remains uncertain whether the U.S. will allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory using American-made weapons, which is a critical component of Zelenskyy’s strategy.
On Sept. 27, Zelenskyy met with former President Trump, who has consistently criticized him and recently questioned Ukraine’s ability to rebuild. At the meeting, Trump touted his good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and said he would “quickly” broker a “fair” end to the war without providing any details for how that would be accomplished.
Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris warned that some Republican peace plans for Ukraine were tantamount to surrender, and “are the same as those of Putin,” as they would require Ukraine to cede significant territory.
At the United Nations General Assembly, Zelenskyy warned that the Kremlin is planning new strikes on Ukraine’s nuclear power plant infrastructure. These anticipated attacks are part of a broader strategy to strain Ukraine’s fragile energy grid, which has been severely damaged by the war. Zelenskyy toured a military plant in Pennsylvania, drawing criticism from Republicans who said they were not invited to the event, and accusing the visit of boosting Democrats’ prospects in a key swing state for the 2024 elections. The controversy culminated with House Speaker Mike Johnson calling for the dismissal of Ukraine’s ambassador, Oksana Markarova. Kyiv has yet to respond.
Biden’s aid package: Following the White House’s meeting with Zelenskyy on Sept. 26, the Biden administration announced a new military aid package for Ukraine worth nearly $8 billion, on the heels of a $375 million aid package announced a day earlier. Biden instructed the Department of Defense to allocate all remaining security funds for Ukraine before the end of his term. This includes $5.5 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority, meaning immediate aid from Pentagon stocks, and $2.4 billion through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which includes contracts with American arms manufacturers for new weapons production for Ukraine.
The U.S. is providing an additional Patriot air defense battery and surface-to-air interceptors. It is also supplying Ukraine with Joint Standoff Weapons (JSOWs), an F-16 integrated glide bomb with an 80-mile range. F-16 pilot training is being expanded, and a global cryptocurrency network helping Russia evade sanctions is being dismantled. Biden announced a state-level meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine in Germany next month.
Ukraine, Regional.
Zaporizhzhia region. Russia launched a sustained campaign of glide bomb attacks on Ukraine’s southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia on Sep. 22, a first such attack for the regional capital, that has killed at least one resident and injured 40 others this week. The Kremlin has been using glide bombs, which are equipped with pop-out wings and satellite navigation, with increasing frequency and devastating effect along the front lines and in other regions of Ukraine for months.
The regional government is working to find ways to mitigate these attacks, which are expected to continue, but there’s no silver bullet. Glide bombs are nearly impossible to intercept, even with Ukraine’s most advanced air defense systems, as they are undetectable by radar. Russia has significant reserves of bombs from the Soviet era, which have destruction capabilities comparable to missiles, both designed to destroy robust structures. The most effective way to counter glide bombs, which are dropped by airplanes miles away, safely outside the reach of air defense systems, is to neutralize the jets carrying the bombs before they can be launched, as the Ukrainian Air Force has repeatedly emphasized.
Kharkiv region. As Zaporizhzhia adjusts to the new phenomenon of glide bomb attacks, for the northeastern city of Kharkiv, Moscow’s Sept. 24 barrage of 8 glide bombs, which killed 5 people and injured 36 others, was woefully familiar. A third of the wounded were hospitalized, with four in critical condition. This marked the third direct hit to a high-rise residential building in Kharkiv in two weeks, according to the city’s mayor. Since the beginning of September, more than 250 houses have been damaged in the city.
Khmelnytskyi region: Russian MIG fighter jets launched five “Kinzhal” hypersonic ballistic missiles on the military airfield at Starokostiantyniv in western Ukraine on consecutive mornings of Sept. 26 and 27. Though far from the Russian border, the small town of Starokostiantyniv endures frequent drone and missile attacks as host to a key military airfield equipped with Soviet-era concrete hangars that house F-16 fighter jets Ukraine has received from western allies. Although Russian sources reported damage to some of those jets, Ukraine’s Air Force declined to comment on the results of the attack.
Donetsk region: Russian troops appear poised to capture Ukraine’s frontline town of Vuhledar, a strategic stronghold at the confluence of the eastern and southern front lines, experts warn. Despite significant losses, Russia’s intensifying offensive is closing in on Vuhledar, a town with rich coal reserves that has repelled attacks for nearly two years, leaving it in ruins. A “fortress,” Vuhledar is crucial for the Ukrainian military, putting it in shelling range of the rail line used by Russia to connect its forces in the east and south of Ukraine. Ruslan Mykula, co-founder of the analytical project DeepState, believes the fall of the town is imminent, predicting it will happen in a matter of days or weeks. Since the start of this week, Russian shelling has killed seven and injured 31 civilians across Donetsk province, according to the Donetsk regional prosecutor’s office.
Odesa region: In the early hours of Sept. 27, Russia attacked the southern port city of Izmail on the Danube River, killing two women and one man, and injuring at least 16 others. Izmail, an important transit point for Ukrainian grain exports enroute to the Black Sea, is located across the Danube from Romania, a NATO member.
Dnipropetrovsk region: Early on Sept. 27, a Russian air strike targeted a police building in the central city of Kryvyi Rih and hometown of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said regional governor Serhii Lysak. The bodies of three victims, a man and two women, were recovered from the rubble of the National Police building. At least six others were injured, with homes and other area buildings damaged. Rescue operations are ongoing, with more victims expected as the rubble is cleared.
The Kremlin’s Arsenal: Russia produces between 132 and 171 missiles per month and currently holds more than 1,450 missiles of various types, according to estimates by Forbes Ukraine based on Ukrainian intelligence data. Despite sanctions and supply chain restrictions, Russia continues to manufacture between 42 and 56 ballistic missiles and 90 to 115 long-range cruise missiles monthly, all capable of striking deep into Ukrainian territory.
The production of Iranian-designed Shahed-136 drones, which Russia uses near nightly to deplete Ukraine’s air defense systems, exceeds 500 units per month. Russia’s monthly missile manufacturing costs are estimated at $1.1 billion, while drone production costs are around $100 million. These production rates allow Russia to conduct large-scale missile strikes every one to two months, with the potential to cripple Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure ahead of winter.
By Danylo Nosov, Marko Syrovoi, Karina L. Tahiliani