The U.S. has strongly cautioned Israel against targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and oil fields in an expected retaliatory attack for the 181 ballistic missiles launched last week. On the Haaretz Podcast, strategic and intelligence expert and Haaretz columnist Yossi Melman argues that such targets should be “off limits and out of bounds” for any retaliatory attack, and not only because of the American objections.
Israel should limit its response to military installations such as the “depots of long range missiles threatening Israel, the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and communication command centers and air defense systems,” says Melman.
Melman also says that hitting Iran’s oil fields and potentially paralyzing the world’s oil market – if Iran strikes back at Saudi oil fields – “is a very dangerous game.”
Past history has shown that the Iranians have the ability to “sustain a long, long and bloody war” and Israel, despite its military might, remains a small and vulnerable country, already weary from a year of conflict.
“Let’s assume that Iran starts targeting Israel In retaliation, firing two missiles a day. Every day, Israelis would have to go to the shelters twice a day,” he said. “What is more important than when and how Israel will react to Iran is what Israeli leaders are thinking when it comes to how to end this war, not just against Iran, but also in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
Also on the podcast, Melman discusses the deep contrast between the “colossal failure” of Israel’s vaunted intelligence services before October 7 and the way they have recently “salvaged their image and reputation” in recent months in their penetration of both Hezbollah and Iran and execution of “impressive” operations.
“Even within the Israeli intelligence community, they cannot explain this huge, huge gap between their performance on October 7 and their performance during the war,” he says.
At the same time, he warns, “we need to put it into perspective. Israeli intelligence is excellent, but at the end of the day – it is just a tool” meant to support war goals and diplomatic efforts.