In Botswanas Election, Diamond Profits Are a Defining Issue

The Botswana Democratic Party, which has governed the southern African nation since its independence in 1966, enters Wednesday’s national elections facing an unlikely threat to its grip on power: diamonds.

For generations, diamonds have been the beating heart of the economy of Botswana, which ranks as one of the world’s top two diamond producers, regularly competing with Russia. The diamond industry has transformed Botswana into a beacon of hope on the African continent, and what the World Bank considers an upper-middle-income country.

But a global decline in diamond demand has hit Botswana’s economy hard. That has only deepened financial hardship for a population in which many believe that the government has upset the nation’s great rise through corruption and bad administration.

Botswana’s reputation as a stable democracy is being put to the test this year amid questions about whether the governing party is using underhanded tactics to stay in power. The party is only one of several in southern Africa that have led their countries since the end of colonialism but have since struggled to deliver a better life for many.

President Mokgweetsi Masisi has been barnstorming the vast, sparsely populated country of 2.5 million, positioning himself and his party as agents of change — even though he has been in power for six years and his party for nearly 60.

Mr. Masisi’s biggest foil is his predecessor, who helped elevate him to power: Ian Khama. Mr. Khama, the son of Botswana’s first post-colonial leader, Seretse Khama, had a bitter falling out with Mr. Masisi. Ian Khama left for South Africa in 2021, but returned to Botswana this year, campaigning for a new party that he helped to form and drawing big crowds wherever he goes.

What are the main issues?

The economy stands front and center.

Unemployment has increased to nearly 28 percent, and it’s even worse among youth, at 38 percent. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the country’s economy will grow just 1 percent this year, down from 5.5 percent in 2022. The decline is largely because of challenges in the diamond industry, which accounts for about 90 percent of Botswana’s exports, according to the World Bank.

Those challenges have dampened some of the good will Mr. Masisi may have earned when his government brokered a new deal last year for the country to receive more revenue from the diamond giant De Beers, which gets most of its diamonds from Botswana.

On international indexes, Botswana ranks as a country with low corruption and good governance. But there has been a growing sense among residents that the government is no longer fiscally prudent, said Adam Mfundisi, a public policy analyst at the University of Botswana.

Mr. Masisi has faced accusations that he was improperly awarded a government farm. He also faced scrutiny after his sister was awarded government contracts worth tens of millions of dollars in 2020 and 2022.

A survey in 2022 by Afrobarometer, a nonpartisan research organization, found that nearly 70 percent of those polled disapproved of Mr. Masisi’s job performance. Half of those polled said they believed that most or all of the officials in the president’s office were involved in corruption, up from 13 percent a decade earlier.

How does Botswana vote?

Voters in 61 constituencies will select the party they want to represent their constituency in the National Assembly, the lawmaking house of Parliament. The party that receives the highest share of the votes in a constituency (even if it is less than 50 percent) wins that seat in the assembly. The members of the assembly elect the president. If a party wins more than half of the seats, its candidate will become president. If not, the parties will likely form a coalition and decide on a president.

Who is running and who is likely to win?

As the incumbent party with the benefit of state resources, the Botswana Democratic Party is still considered the favorite to win, but analysts say the outcome is difficult to predict. The party is led by the 63-year-old Mr. Masisi, a former schoolteacher who worked for the United Nations Children’s Fund before entering politics. The party won nearly 67 percent of the seats that were up for grabs in the National Assembly in the previous election in 2019.

The largest opposition party is the Umbrella for Democratic Change, which won 26 percent of the seats in the last election. The party is led by Duma Boko, a 54-year-old human rights lawyer who is a graduate of Harvard University.

Mr. Khama’s party, the Botswana Patriotic Front, could play the role of spoiler. Its presidential candidate is Mephato Reatile, 57, an engineer who left the governing party in 2020 after clashing with its leadership.

But Mr. Khama is the party’s main draw even though he faces charges on money laundering and illegal firearm possession. He says the charges are politically motivated — a grievance shared by supporters who have defected from the governing party in droves.

The fourth candidate for president is Dumelang Saleshando, 53, leader of the Botswana Congress Party, which bills itself as a social democratic party.

Some opposition parties have questioned the impartiality of the country’s Independent Electoral Commission. They have criticized the commission for sending officials to Zimbabwe to learn from the commission there. Zimbabwe’s election last year was widely denounced by independent observers as failing to meet international standards.

But Botswana’s commission has dismissed claims of rigging as reckless, and said it was only studying machines that Zimbabwe used for accrediting observers.

When will we find out the results?

The electoral commission said most of the results should be tabulated on the night of the election. But it will likely take a day or two before the full results are known.