Many Ukrainians fear Trump’s possible return to the White House, with concerns he’d cut support and pressure NATO allies. Could a Trump presidency leave Eastern Europe vulnerable?
Fewer than 5% of US voters consider foreign policy a top issue, according to polls, suggesting that Russia’s war on Ukraine has not played a central role in the campaigns of either Harris or Trump.
Nevertheless, Republican candidate Donald Trump has promised to “end the war in 24 hours” without providing details on how he intends to do so.
Ahead of the final US presidential election results, Euronews spoke to several Ukrainians about their thoughts on the outcome and its potential impact on their future.
“I’m really scared,” said Denys, a Ukrainian journalist, in an interview with Euronews. He is not alone. A Ukrainian woman living in Poland told Euronews that, for her, a Trump victory would feel like “the end of the world”.
Why are some Ukrainians afraid of a Trump win?
For many Ukrainians, the idea of a Trump win in 2024 is deeply unsettling. The concern is that Trump, once in office, could withdraw US military support and apply pressure on NATO allies, thus jeopardising the security of Eastern Europe.
Countries such as Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, all bordering Russia, could be directly affected, Denys explained. His reasoning?
“Trump’s unpredictable nature and populist rhetoric, including his claim of establishing ‘peace between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours’, are seen as dangerously simplistic and unrealistic,” he said.
Trump’s peace plan reportedly involves pressuring Ukraine to cede territory or abandon its NATO aspirations.
This idea aligns with past proposals from his inner circle to create autonomous regions along a demilitarised zone and exclude Ukraine from NATO, as outlined by Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance, according to FT.
Trump’s long-time advisor has also hinted at revisiting the failed Minsk agreements, with European troops overseeing peace enforcement instead of NATO or UN peacekeepers. Additionally – though controversial – Trump believes economic pressure, such as lowering oil prices, could compel Russia to negotiate.
While many Ukrainians express deep fear over a Trump victory, some, like former Ukrainian Economic Minister and current President of the Kyiv School of Economics, Tymofiy Mylovanov, take a more measured view.
Mylovanov told Euronews that he believes Trump will win, but while he thinks a Harris victory would be better for Ukraine, he claims that “Trump isn’t as bad for Ukraine as many believe.”
He explained that much more depends on the reality on the frontlines and within Ukraine, Russia, and Europe than on the wishes of a US president, though their influence is considerable.
“Whoever wins, there will be an attempt to end the war. But it will fail because Putin will deceive everyone again. The new president will come to understand this, and then we will return to strong support for Ukraine,” Mylovanov concluded.
Was there less concern about a Harris win?
At a recent campaign event in Michigan, Harris accused Trump of potentially allowing Russian President Vladimir Putin to seize Kyiv if re-elected, as well as pressuring Ukraine to abandon its fight against Russia.
For the Ukrainian living in Poland Euronews spoke to, a Harris win would represent a glimmer of hope, though she expects no miracles.
Euronews also spoke to Vlad, who serves in the Ukrainian Air Defence Forces. “The elections of another country are deciding my fate, and I’ve got no right to vote,” he said.
Though he hopes Harris will win the presidency, he fears “she will continue Biden’s restrictive policy toward Ukraine.” Joe Biden has been criticised for his cautious approach to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, particularly regarding restrictions on the Ukrainian army’s use of US-supplied weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia.
Ukrainian journalist Denys agrees, expressing uncertainty about what to expect from Harris.
“I think she is expected to continue Biden’s policies. Her reluctance to fully support the delivery of long-range weapons to Ukraine raises concerns about whether critical aid will arrive in time or face further delays, leaving Ukraine vulnerable,” he explained.
Tensions are high
Needless to say, tensions are high not only in the US but also in Ukraine. Another Ukrainian, who preferred to remain anonymous, told Euronews, “If they [American citizens] don’t take responsibility for their actions, they risk causing a new wave of destruction and loss of life, possibly even a third world war one that they have ignored until now.”
“It’s as if they elected an incompetent leader who seems fascinated by figures like Hitler, only in a modern guise,” they said.
The unease in Ukraine reflects broader fears about Trump’s potential influence if re-elected – a sentiment echoed by some of his former top advisors. John Kelly, a retired Marine general and Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, warned that Trump meets the definition of a fascist and recalled disturbing comments he made about Adolf Hitler.
According to Kelly, Trump not only suggested that Hitler “did some good things” but also expressed admiration for “Hitler’s generals“, despite Kelly’s attempts to counter these views.
Up until now, the US presidential race hasn’t been called, leaving Ukrainians and the world in a tense wait-and-see moment. While many speculate on the potential outcomes, much still remains uncertain.
For Ukrainians, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With concerns about waning support under a Trump presidency, Ukrainians are anxiously awaiting an outcome that could dramatically influence their fate and the broader geopolitical landscape.
