The Nicaraguan dictatorship is not on Trump’s radar and would only enter his agenda “when there is a topic of particular interest.”
HAVANA TIMES – Latin America is not among the priorities of the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump. On the contrary, it is highly likely that his administration will implement severe immigration policies and economic protectionism that will ultimately harm the region, according to several international relations experts.
Although Trump’s agenda is still “somewhat unclear,” there are elements suggesting he will pursue more protectionist policies and increase tariffs, which would make it “more difficult for Latin America’s export sector to place their products in the United States,” explained Jaime Ordoñez, a doctor in International Law and professor at the University of Costa Rica (UCR), in an interview with the program Esta Noche broadcast on the YouTube channel of CONFIDENCIAL, due to television censorship in Nicaragua.
Edgar Franco, a professor at the University of Michigan, told EFE that this protectionist trend will affect economies that export raw materials, “that is, the majority of countries in the region,” though it will benefit governments with authoritarian leaders, such as El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele or Argentina’s Javier Milei.
Silvia Pedraza, a professor of sociology at the same university, agreed, remembering that during Trump’s previous presidency (2017–2021), he already pursued an isolationist policy, something that is likely to repeat itself.
Pedraza argued that the future president’s foreign policy will not focus on Latin America because “it no longer holds any advantage for him”. “In the previous term, Trump was seeking support from Latin American immigrants who were already US citizens.”
Latin America, Fifth or Sixth in Priorities
Latin America will be fifth or sixth in the priority order of Trump’s new term, said Nicaraguan political analyst Manuel Orozco, in an opinion article published in CONFIDENCIAL.
Orozco, director of the Migration, Remittances, and Development Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, predicted that immigration will be Trump’s priority. “It is a foreign policy issue because the countries these migrants come from are fundamentally politically difficult, and they are expelling their people.”
Other priorities in Trump’s foreign policy include “those related to US strategic interests in its relationship with Iran. Secondly, with the Gulf and oil-exporting countries. Thirdly, maintaining some relationship with Israel that doesn’t worsen conditions in Palestine. And fourth, Ukraine and Europe in general, as well as the relationship with NATO,” said Orozco.
Trump and His Promise Against Migrants
Analysts warned that the persecution of the migrant population, one of Trump’s campaign promises, could result in human rights violations.
Ordoñez predicts that the Trump administration will enforce anti-immigrant measures, such as rebuilding the wall at the US-Mexico border and mass detentions and deportations of undocumented migrants.
“There will be a massive policy of persecution and expulsion of migrants, there is no doubt in my mind. It is an issue that Trump has to deliver on for his voters. This will generate serious humanitarian problems,” assured the Costa Rican academic.
Journalist Rafael Bernal of The Hill in Washington D.C. emphasized that Trump’s promise to deport 20 million undocumented immigrants is logistically “impossible to fulfill,” but warned that it is something the elected president will attempt.
“The attempt could terrorize many communities where there are many migrants or simply where there are many Hispanics, even immigrant communities from other parts of the world,” noted Bernal in a panel shared with international journalist and political analyst Gustavo Alegret on the program Esta Semana.
According to Alegret, president-elect Trump has had the ability to unjustly link immigration with insecurity and “has used this to blame migrants for insecurity and violence” in the US. Therefore, his new administration will likely carry out “mass deportations.”
“Trump will seek actions with impact, but with media impact, not real impact. Because here, the people who are pulling the weight of the economy, doing those jobs no one wants to do, are Hispanics,” Alegret pointed out.
Nicaragua, Cuba, and Venezuela
There is still no clarity about Trump’s foreign policy towards authoritarian regimes in Latin America. Experts insisted on evaluating “case by case,” since in the past, the Trump has maintained relations with regimes like Russia’s, despite being opposed to his allies in Latin America.
“One would think, well, perhaps in the case of Venezuela, Trump would have a harsher stance than the Biden administration. However, let’s remember that, from a geopolitical point of view, Trump has allies like Putin (from Russia) or Kim Jong-un (from North Korea), who have ties with Venezuela, and the relationship between Russia and Venezuela is strong,” commented Ordoñez.
Bernal and Alegret did not rule out a rapprochement between Trump and Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, but not with the regimes of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua and Miguel Diaz-Canel in Cuba.
Trump’s problem with Maduro “is not about human rights violations, nor does it have to do with the election that was clearly stolen, none of that. His problem with Nicolas Maduro is that he gets along too well with China and that Venezuelans have been migrating,” said Bernal.
In the case of Cuba and Nicaragua, the journalists agreed that they are not on Trump’s radar and will only be placed on the elected president’s agenda “when there is a topic of particular interest.”
“In the last 20 years, the number one priority for the United States (with Latin America) has been migration, and number two is violence and drug trafficking, especially fentanyl and cocaine. Trade relations and governance have competed for third place. Today, the problem of dictatorships is, in principle, in third place on the agenda for Latin America and the Caribbean,” wrote Orozco.
“Nicaragua is subordinated to what happens in Venezuela, but it really depends on who is in charge of US foreign policy. Maduro and Ortega know that people like Mauricio Claver Carone, Carlos Trujillo, and others have placed them in undesirable positions,” said Orozco.
