Trump Should Not Let Putin Claim Victory in Ukraine, Says NATO Official

A senior NATO military official suggested on Saturday that any peace deal negotiated by President-elect Donald J. Trump that allowed President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to claim victory in Ukraine would undermine the interests of the United States.

In a wide-ranging interview on the sidelines of a European defense summit in Prague, Adm. Rob Bauer, the Dutch chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, said: “If you allow a nation like Russia to win, to come out of this as the victor, then what does it mean for other autocratic states in the world where the U.S. has also interests?”

He added: “It’s important enough to talk about Ukraine on its own, but there is more at stake than just Ukraine.”

Mr. Trump has said repeatedly that he could end the war in Ukraine in a day, without saying how. A settlement outlined by Vice President-elect JD Vance in September echoes what people close to the Kremlin say Mr. Putin wants: allowing Russia to keep the territory it has captured and guaranteeing that Ukraine will not join NATO.

A spokeswoman for Mr. Trump’s transition team, Karoline Leavitt, said he was re-elected because the American people “trust him to lead our country and restore peace through strength around the world.”

“When he returns to the White House, he will take the necessary actions to do just that,” Ms. Leavitt said on Saturday.

Mr. Trump has long been critical of the aid that the United States has sent to Ukraine — more than $100 billion since February 2022, most of it in weapons and military support — and in a podcast last month blamed President Volodymyr Zelensky for Russia’s invasion that started a war the president-elect described as “a loser.”

Admiral Bauer would not discuss the proposals that the incoming Trump administration has floated, saying he wanted to wait and see what the former president would do upon his return. “I think that it’s also important to not jump to conclusions based on what he has said so far,” he said.

NATO was created in 1949 to counter the Soviet Union’s threat to the West, and Mr. Putin has long warned the alliance against expanding too close to Russia’s borders. The United States is one of NATO’s founding members, and its support was never in doubt until Mr. Trump raised the possibility during his first term that he might try to withdraw from the alliance and accused its other members of failing to pay their fair share of defense costs.

Admiral Bauer, who is NATO’s most senior military officer, also warned of the significant geopolitical ramifications of North Korea sending troops and weapons to support Russia against Ukraine.

“The most isolated country in the world has now suddenly become a player,” he said.

If North Korea’s help on the battlefield gives Mr. Putin a stronger hand in negotiations, Admiral Bauer said other authoritarian leaders may be similarly encouraged to violate international rules upholding territorial sovereignty and economic sanctions. The fact that China, with its considerable sway over North Korea, did not intervene to prevent the assistance to Russia creates a “dangerous situation for the United States” going forward, Admiral Bauer said.

The three-day gathering in Prague, hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based research group, focused on boosting national militaries and the defense industry in Europe.

But the possibility of Mr. Trump winding down American support for Ukraine drew bleak forecasts for the war effort, and prompted renewed calls for Europe to wean itself from its decades-long dependence on U.S. security guarantees and weapons.

While most speakers were cautious not to predict the exact course Mr. Trump might take, there was a sense that Europe should prepare for the worst.

“We will have to wait, what will be the actual policies of the new administration vis-à-vis Ukraine, vis-à-vis Europe, NATO,” President Petr Pavel of the Czech Republic said on Friday at the summit. “But without any doubt, we will have to start” working more closely across the continent, he added.

Whatever deal Mr. Trump tries to strike with Russia to end the war, Mr. Pavel warned, “it will most probably not be in our interest and in the interest of Ukraine.”

Mr. Trump and President Zelensky spoke by phone on Wednesday, a call joined by Elon Musk, the tech billionaire whose satellite communication company Starlink has played a key role in Ukraine’s military war effort.

In Prague, officials widely agreed that Europe must be better prepared to defend itself and build its own weapons. But concerns pervaded about balancing the high costs of arming militaries against rising economic deficits around Europe and fears that a Trump administration could impose high tariffs on European imports.

NATO countries in Europe have increased national defense spending by 50 percent over the past decade, according to the I.I.S.S. More than 23 of NATO’s 32 members now spend at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense, up from just six countries in 2021. But many officials at the conference said allies should move toward spending as much as 3 or 4 percent in coming years.

Admiral Bauer said Mr. Trump’s brusque demands during his first term had helped spur NATO members into reaching the 2 percent threshold, along with the war in Ukraine.

The I.I.S.S. study also outlined gaps in Europe’s ability to quickly manufacture sufficient amounts of ammunition and weaponry.

Douglas R. Bush, the U.S. Army’s top acquisition official, who was appointed by the outgoing Biden administration, sought to strike a reassuring note for the skittish audience in Prague. But the United States has also struggled to reach some of its weapons production goals, he said: By the end of the year, American producers should be churning out up to 55,000 shells of 155-millimeter artillery ammunition each month — less than the 80,000 that was projected a year ago.

In an interview, Mr. Bush said obtaining and maintaining machines to build high-quality rounds had taken longer than expected. He said monthly production was still on pace to reach 100,000 rounds by the end of 2025, as was previously projected.

Still, noting that the United States relies on ammunition components from Poland, France and Germany, and is buying shoulder-launched missiles from Sweden, Mr. Bush described “deep ties” with Europe that would be difficult to undo.

“Our relationship with Europe is not four years at a time, it is enduring,” Mr. Bush said. “That won’t change.”