By Dr. Nidal Shoukeir
In just a few weeks, President Donald Trump will return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States. According to U.S. protocol, the Republican president is set to be inaugurated on January 20, officially beginning his second term following a historic comeback after his landslide victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, the current Vice President under Joe Biden.
Trump’s election to lead the world’s most powerful nation has sparked concerns and fears among both allies and rivals, for three main reasons:
A Stark Policy Shift: The sharp contrast between Trump’s policies and those of President Joe Biden over the past four years makes the transition between their polar-opposite approaches challenging and fraught with uncertainty.
Trump’s Combative Style: Trump’s controversial and confrontational personality—marked by inflexibility and a disregard for diplomatic norms—often alienates those who deal with him, particularly allies.
The Legacy of His First Term: Trump’s first term (2017–2021) left a complex and divisive legacy that many fear could repeat itself during his second term, expected to last until 2029.
Given these factors, several nations are bracing for Trump’s return to the White House and the global stage, most notably Europe, the United States’ historic partner and “frenemy.”
Despite European leaders rushing to congratulate Trump on his election victory, they have not forgotten the troubles of his first term. During that period, transatlantic relations were highly strained. Washington treated European capitals with condescension, sometimes as adversaries rather than allies, disregarding the deep and historical ties that have long bound the two sides of the Atlantic, collectively referred to as “the West.”
Europeans still remember Trump’s encouragement of Brexit and his antagonism toward the European Union. They recall his embrace of trade protectionism, his frequent rebukes of European nations over military protection, and his demands that they “pay their fair share.” They also vividly remember the disputes during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the U.S. competed with Europe over shipments of masks and ventilators, sometimes using methods described as “unethical” to seize shipments already purchased by Europeans.
Faced with these bitter memories, Europe is reluctantly preparing to navigate a challenging second round with Donald Trump, focusing on three key issues:
The Ukraine Conflict
Under Biden, Europe has become deeply involved in the Ukraine war. Now, it faces an American administration with a completely different agenda, one seeking a swift exit from the conflict—even at Europe’s expense.
With Trump’s return, Europe finds itself cornered with two painful choices: either align with Trump’s approach to end the war quickly, even if it means making significant and painful concessions to Russia, or shoulder the financial and strategic burden of the war alone, without the crucial backing of the United States, its primary sponsor.
Trade Wars
Many in Europe anticipate new trade tensions under Trump. His potential plan to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on European imports has already raised alarms.
In response, Europe is preparing multiple scenarios to address this challenge, ranging from diplomacy and dialogue to increasing imports of American natural gas, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has suggested. Europe is also considering retaliatory tariffs, particularly targeting major U.S. tech companies like Meta, Google, and Apple.
NATO’s Future
With Trump’s return, Europe faces a serious strategic dilemma regarding the future of NATO, the alliance that safeguards European security. Trump might reconsider the U.S. commitment to NATO, potentially creating security upheaval during a critical time.
In this context, European leaders are revisiting old and new approaches to address this challenge. French President Emmanuel Macron has reiterated calls for European defense independence from NATO. Meanwhile, internal European discussions are focusing on revising defense policies, increasing military spending to at least 3% of GDP, and strengthening Europe’s role within NATO. The upcoming NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025 is expected to shape the trajectory of this sensitive issue.
Today, Europe, which had openly preferred Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, finds itself haunted by the nightmares of Trump’s first term as it prepares for his second. Despite the state of full alert in European capitals, aimed at crafting a more effective approach to dealing with the new Republican administration, the key question remains:
Can Europe, divided as it is, succeed in forging “less confrontational” relations with Donald Trump’s administration during his second term—better than those of his first? Or will history repeat itself once again?
The author is Professor of Strategic Communications and Governmental Relations.
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