Former French diplomat Jean-Marie Guhenno: ‘Trump could force Europeans to face their contradictions’

The author of several books, Jean-Marie Guéhenno teaches international relations at Columbia University in New York. He was the United Nations’ under-secretary-general for Peacekeeping Operations, before being appointed head of the International Crisis Group from 2014 to 2018, an NGO specializing in conflict prevention.

In your opinion, what are the consequences of Donald Trump’s election for international relations?

Donald Trump wrote a book titled The Art of the Deal in 1987. His program is himself, which is both reassuring and worrying. He is more of a “Big Man,” a “strong man” as we have seen in many countries, than a true fascist. Fascism is an ideology of the 20^th century. Trump doesn’t really have a structured or ideological program. It’s possible that he’ll do what he says, but it’s also possible that he’ll be content with the announcement effect of his program. In his first term [2017-2021], for example, he promised a great wall along Mexico. He only built a few kilometers of it.

On Ukraine, what do you expect from the Trump administration?

Trump said he’d settle the matter directly with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, in other words, over the heads of European and Ukrainian leaders. Putin will probably let him come. But part of Trump’s entourage will tell him, “If you drop Ukraine, that’s a bad signal vis-à-vis China.” The question is whether Trump considers Ukraine to be of more strategic importance to the US than Vietnam or Afghanistan once were. We can’t rule out a fairly brutal scenario. Another scenario would be for the Europeans to face up to their responsibilities. “You want to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine? Send your troops there to dissuade Russia!,” Trump might say. Which European country would then be ready to do this? Probably Poland, provided it wasn’t alone, but would the others be ready for a direct confrontation with Russia? I’m far from certain. Trump could, therefore, force Europeans to face their contradictions.

Should the US drastically reduce its aid to Ukraine, are Europeans ready to pick up the slack?

This issue is both political and operational. Europeans don’t have the same observation and surveillance capabilities as the Americans. The president [Emmanuel Macron] has spoken of a “war economy,” but this presupposes that manufacturers have sufficient visibility to invest in new factories. This is starting to happen, but we probably need to do a lot more. This raises the problem of political will. This is where a possible European divide could emerge. One of the key questions is Germany. What lesson will Berlin learn from the arrival of a new Trump administration? This will be decisive, because, without Germany, it will be very difficult to mobilize the European Union.

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