Dispatches from Ukraine. Day 961.
Odesa region. Russian ballistic missiles struck Odesa’s port infrastructure late on October 9, killing eight people and wounding at least 11, four critically. A Panamanian civilian ship was hit in the third such attack in four days targeting Ukraine’s maritime grain corridor.
Kharkiv region. Russia unleashed six glide bombs on the regional capital’s densely populated areas on October 8, killing four and wounding 33.
Kherson region. Russian forces continue their targeted drone strikesagainst civilians in the regional capital. In the latest attack, a drone stalked and killed an elderly man cycling through the city. As Russian troops advance, the city’s population dwindles in the face of ever-increasing danger, particularly in districts closest to the front.
Zaporizhzhia region. Russian forces have launched 30 glide bombs on Zaporizhzhia in the past two weeks, damaging hundreds of homes. The latest attack wounded six civilians.
A second Russian MiG-31K fighter jet, capable of carrying hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, has arrived in Belarus. This jet touched down at Machulishchy Airfield just two days after another MiG-31K’s arrival, the first such landing since April, 2023.
Ukraine has denied Russia’s claim that it destroyed a Patriot air defense system in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Although some equipment sustained damage during an attack on October 9, a Patriot system engaged in intercepting Russian ballistic missiles at the time remains operational. Earlier, Russian media circulated videos supposedly showing a successful strike on a Patriot battery.
European Council representatives have voted to approve almost $40 billion infinancial assistance for Ukraine derived from future profits of frozen Russian assets. The aid is part of a larger $50 billion loan from the G7. The EC expects this critical support for Ukraine’s economy to be available within the year, with repayment spread over a maximum of 45 years. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, however, is obstructing release of these funds, insisting that assistance should be withheld until after the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile, the U.S. has stressed the need for assurances that Russian assets in Europe will remain frozen to secure a steady revenue stream for servicing the loan. The EC will vote on the loan proposal on October 22.
The number of people reported missing under extraordinary circumstances in Ukraine has surged to approximately 49,000. The Unified Register now contains more than 59,000 entries, which include names of missing people, those who have been located and records of unidentified bodies awaiting forensic examination. Notably, around 8,000 people have been found safe, many having returned to Ukraine or residing in countries with active legal agreements with Ukraine. Among the missing, 1,769 are children under the age of 18. Russian forces have forcibly displaced and deported more than 19,500 Ukrainian children.
Russia exported more than 180,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain through the port of Mariupol in 2024. Moscow seeks to undermine Ukraine’s agricultural sector while financing its military operations through the plundering of occupied territories. It appears that this practice is part of Russia’s broader strategy of economic aggression as reports suggest that Russia plans to start coal exports from the occupied Donbas region via Mariupol this month.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Ukraine finds itself at a crossroads as uncertainty looms over continued support from its Western allies, for whom political dynamics in the U.S. play a pivotal role. A second term for former President Donald Trump could jeopardize future aid packages in Congress, while alternative funding mechanisms, such as NATO contributions or loans based on frozen Russian assets, might not fully cover Ukraine’s needs. Recent data from the Ukraine Support Tracker indicate that Ukraine received approximately $16 billion in aid during July and August, primarily focused on military assistance in July and economic aid in August.
If Western countries maintain their current levels of commitment, total assistance to Ukraine next year could exceed reach or exceed $110 billion divided almost equally between military aid and financial support. However, without new U.S. aid packages, military support could drop to $37 billion and financial aid to $50 billion. The situation would worsen further if European nations follow Germany’s recent decision to cut allocations by 50%. If so, total aid could be halved to approximately $60 billion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in London for a high-stakes meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The two leaders, meeting in England for the second time since Starmer took office, will discuss continued support for Ukraine amid its ongoing war with Russia. Zelenskyy’s visit to London also includes talks with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Earlier this week, Zelenskyy arrived in Croatia to participate in the third Ukraine–Southeast Europe summit, aimed at strengthening regional cooperation and support for Ukraine.
Following his meetings in the UK, Zelenskyy traveled to Paris for discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron, then to Berlin later in the week to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. This diplomatic tour follows the cancellation of a key NATO Ramstein summit due to a change in U.S. President Joe Biden’s schedule caused by the onset of Hurricane Milton. The implications of this shift for Ukraine’s strategic plans remain unclear.
On October 8, a Ukrainian drone struck and apparently destroyed a major Russian arsenal in Tver, approximately 70 miles from the Ukrainian border. The arsenal, one of only about 25 in Russia, reportedly housed thousands of tons of missiles, including some from North Korea, glide bombs, artillery shells and other munitions all sorely needed for Russia’s offensive in Eastern Ukraine. Ukraine in previous weeks has blasted several other such arms depots.
By Danylo Nosov, Alan Sacks