Donald Trump’s US election victory has put European leaders, gathering for a summit in Budapest, under huge pressure
The collapse of Olaf Scholz’s dysfunctional coalition government could not have come at a worse time for Europe.
Donald Trump’s US election victory has put European leaders, gathering for a summit in Budapest on Thursday, under huge pressure.
They fear he will cut off weapons and aid to Ukraine, leaving Europe scrambling to plug the US-sized gap, and that Trump will hit them with painful trade tariffs.
But Germany is the EU’s richest member state and arguably its most influential, and its chancellor has gone missing, engulfed in a domestic political crisis.
Emmanuel Macron, of France, is also the weakest he has ever been as he limps to the endgame of the final years of his presidency.
With the Paris-Berlin engine of EU policy-making spluttering, the bloc’s ability to respond decisively and with unity has been undermined.
“One thing is sure. Europe is not strong without a strong Germany,” Roberta Metsola, the European Parliament president, told reporters in Budapest.
Mr Trump has vowed to hit the EU with tariffs of 10 to 20 per cent once he returns to the White House.
Brussels has drawn up a list of iconic US products for retaliatory tariffs, something that risks escalating into a trade war with Washington.
US tariffs would hit Germany, which has a 63 billion euro trade surplus with the US, when its economy is stumbling after the loss of cheap Russian gas and contracting sales to China.
Support for Ukraine is arguably an even bigger issue. Mr Trump has criticised Joe Biden for sending billions in aid and weapons to Ukraine to fund a war in Europe’s backyard.
According to the Kiel Institute, the US has provided aid worth a total of €84.73 billion (£71.21 billion) to Ukraine since it was invaded in February 2022, including €56.8 billion in military aid.
Europe, including non-EU countries, has provided €118.2 billion, but that has been mostly financial rather than military aid to Ukraine, which is a candidate country to join the bloc.
The US has sent weapons worth €56.8 billion, dwarfing the contributions of European countries, with Germany sending the most arms – worth €10.63 billion – followed by the UK, at €9.4 billion.
There are now question marks over Berlin’s support with a distracted and weak chancellor at the helm. Germany has already reduced its contributions, arguing that the money will be replaced by interest against frozen Russian assets.
As more than 50 leaders met for the European Political Community summit, there was a chance for Britain to stake out a leadership role on Ukraine and European security, which could bolster Sir Keir Starmer’s efforts towards a reset with the EU.
The centre-Left Mr Scholz, the Prime Minister’s friend, is now a lame duck far behind the conservative CDU party in the polls. Its leader, Friedrich Merz, has signalled that he would give Ukraine the long-range missiles it has pleaded for and aims to stimulate growth by cutting taxes and red tape in contrast to Mr Scholz’s high tax and spend strategy.
But Mr Scholz is intent on keeping this government-in-waiting out of power by not holding elections until March, two months after Mr Trump will be inaugurated.
That will achieve nothing beyond prolonging Germany’s paralysis and weakening European preparations for Trump 2.0.
