By Paul Seddon
Politics reporter
Millions of voters have cast their ballots in the last big test of public opinion before a general election.
The results of local, mayoral and police and crime commissioner elections in England and Wales will continue to roll in over the weekend.
But here are the key takeaways so far.
Labour’s general election chances
Labour has gained over 170 council seats, taking control of eight councils, including Milton Keynes and Nuneaton, where there are traditional bellwether seats for general elections.
There is a 9% average swing so far from the Tories since 2021, the last time most seats were contested, when the Conservatives were enjoying the “vaccine bounce” in the polls under Boris Johnson.
Its best result so far has arguably been in the by-election in Blackpool South, held alongside the local votes, which it won with a 26% swing from the Tories.
That victory was in line with national opinion polls, which suggest Sir Keir Starmer’s party is heading for a general election victory.
Bad results for the Conservatives
The party has so far lost about half the seats it is defending, increasing internal pressure on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
It has lost over 400 councillors and control of 10 councils, including Basildon in Essex, which gained an iconic status for the Tories under Margaret Thatcher.
But there was some respite in the Tees Valley, where incumbent Tory Ben Houchen won a third term as regional mayor.
The party will also be hoping for a victory in the West Midlands mayoral race to give the party something positive to talk about in the coming days.
Red dawn for mayors
Labour won a trio of newly-created regional mayor roles, continuing its recent successes in this area in recent years.
Although its victory in the North East was widely expected, it will be particularly pleased with its victory in the East Midlands, expected to be a key battleground at the general election
Its York and North Yorkshire win also provided the party with a PR coup, as the region contains Rishi Sunak’s constituency.
A further six mayoral results are expected on Saturday, including in London, where Sadiq Khan is trying to secure a third term against Tory opponent Susan Hall.
Gaza stance affecting Labour vote
Labour has suffered some heavy losses in wards with a large number of Muslim voters, in a sign its stance on the Israel-Gaza war is affecting its vote in those areas.
On average, the party’s vote is down 11% compared to last year in wards where more than one in 10 residents identify as Muslim.
But there is some evidence the biggest drops in support are largely confined to wards where the party’s support was already very strong.
It lost control of Oldham in Greater Manchester, where two councillors quit the party over Gaza earlier this year.
National campaign co-ordinator and Labour MP Pat McFadden has acknowledged Gaza was a factor there – but is also pointing to local factors too.
The party will be waiting to study further data from other seats with a high Muslim population as it comes in.
The strongly pro-Palestinian Workers Party of Britain won four seats – two in Rochdale, one in Calderdale and one in Manchester, where they ousted the Labour deputy leader of the council Luthfur Rahman.
Image source, Getty Images
Sir Keir Starmer travelled to Blackpool to toast his party’s by-election success
Mixed bag for Reform UK
The party won 16.9% of the vote in Blackpool South, coming third, only 117 votes behind the Tory candidate.
It was its best performance yet in a Westminster by-election, although not as good as the 28.9% it won in Peterborough in 2019 in its previous guise as the Brexit Party.
The share of the vote suggests that while about two-thirds of the Tory vote may have gone to Labour, about a third went to Reform – something that may worry Tory election strategists.
However, the party has only won two council seats so far, both in Havant, near Portsmouth.
Assessing the party’s performance here is more difficult, however, as it is only standing just over 326 candidates in 316 wards, a very low number.
Greens and Lib Dems gain
These parties will be hoping to perform well in key areas, with both planning to run highly targeted campaigns at the general election.
The Liberal Democrats have made gains of 101 councillors so far and won Tunbridge Wells and Dorset.
It failed to take control of West Oxfordshire and Wokingham, both target areas.
The Greens have gained more than 60 seats so far, but failed to win control of Bristol council as it hoped.
The party has increased its vote share in areas with a high Muslim population, as well in areas with lots of students.
Image source, Getty Images
Voter ID wrangles
Boris Johnson hit the headlines after being turned away from his local polling station after forgetting his voter ID.
The former prime minister, whose government introduced the rules, was later able to vote after returning with the right documentation.
The government also confirmed it intends to add Veteran Cards to the list of acceptable ID, after some former service personnel were turned away at polling stations.
Meanwhile, Conservative MP Tom Hunt said his dyspraxia caused him to lose his passport and he had to arrange an emergency proxy vote.
