Wia dis foto come from, Getty
- Author, Oksana Torop
- Role, BBC News Ukrainian
- Reporting from Kyiv
US president-elect Donald Trump don promise to end di war for Ukraine “in one day”.
Im no tok exactly how im go do am, and afta im victory for early November, ideas don dey fly upanda. Many analysts believe say di plan to end di war don already start.
Kyiv anticipate say di newly elected US president go try to bring Ukraine and Russia to di negotiating table at di veri beginning of im term. President Zelensky don even cautiously voice im intention to end di war next year, ‘by diplomatic means’.
But wetin dis timing mean and which outcomes fit dey expected from such tok-tok?
Frontline dynamics and opinion polls
Di situation for di battlefield dey move towards Russia favour as dem dey push for all di whole frontline.
Russia forces dey move go forward for di eastern Donbass region, as well as towards di direction of di town of Kupyansk for di Kharkiv region for north-east and di city of Zaporizhzhia, one big regional centre for south-east.
For October dis year, Russia occupy additional 500 square km of Ukrainian territory – di most significant advance since March 2022.
According to President Zelensky, 27% of di internationally recognised Ukraine territory dey under Russia control now.
Dis one include Crimea and di parts for east of di kontri wey Russia occupy for 2014.
Ukraine cities of Sumy, Kharkiv, Odessa and Kyiv still dey collect hits from deadly guided bombs and explosive-laden drones daily.
Tori be say Moscow dey prepare one mass counter-offensive for Russia Kursk region, employing soldiers from North Korea.
Ukraine bin occupy part of di Kursk region for August for one surprise cross-border attack and dem still dey hold am as bargaining chip for potential peace negotiations.
Russia too dey try make sure say dem go fit negotiate from di position of power.
Ukraine analysts and military representatives wey speak to BBC, believe say Kremlin dey rush to seize more Ukraine land in time for di ceasefire tok tok, if dem begin as soon as dem inaugurate Donald Trump for January 2025.
Di popular believe be say President Putin wan reach as far as di borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, or even capture anoda regional capital, like Zaporizhzhia.
Time no dey Ukraine side, as e dey faces acute shortage of soldiers for di frontline.
Many men dey try avoid di draft, while di ones wey dey fight for di past two and half years don tire.
Anoda tin wey dey cause wahala of recruiting more soldiers na one controversial issue for Ukraine society: many pipo no ready to go fight, while families of di ones wey dey fight feel say dem no dey treat dem fairly.
Ukraine pipo as a whole don tire for di war, as dem don experience regular bombings, power outages and sleepless nights since February 2022.
Now dem dey live in fear as winter dey come, dem believe say dis one go be di toughest one yet.
Wia dis foto come from, Getty Images
Survey show say di idea of peace negotiations wit Russia don begin grow on di pipo, even if e mean losing territory in di process and uncertainty for di border situation in the long term.
One opinion poll, wey one thinktank Razumkov Centre publish for October, show say one in three Ukrainians now favour peace toks, compared to one in five one year ago.
According to anoda October survey, Ukrainians also no sure say dia kontri go eventually win as dem bin dey tink before, although majority still believe say Ukraine go defeat Russia.
Waiting for di ‘Trump Plan’
Afta Donald Trump victory for US election, many observers don dey wait to hear di details of im peace plan for Russia and Ukraine.
Im first post-election statements dey limited to non-specific tok like: “We go work very hard wit Russia and Ukraine. Dis gatz to stop. Russia and Ukraine have to stop.”
Dem di US media report say Trump allegedly do phone call wit Vladimir Putin, warning di Russian president against escalating di war, but Kremlin deny am.
Ukrainian experts believe say while Trump plan never plan finish, im team do already come up wit ideas for iam.
Many of dis existing ideas, one way or anoda, fit end up freezing di conflict, Alyona Hetmanchuk, wey be director of “New Europe”, one Ukraine foreign policy think tank, believe.
“Freezing di front line for di war. Freezing di question of membership for NATO. Freezing financial aid, at least. Just freezing everything”, Hetmanchuk explain.
She consider say dis approach no too differentto dat of Biden administration.
Di difference be say, di Democrats think say Ukraine and not US suppose initiate di negotiations, although de also promise Ukraine long-term financial support.
But unlike Democrats, Trump don tok say im plan to appoint one special Ukraine envoy to lead di negotiations, wey Kyiv see as promising positive.
During im first tenure, Trump bin get dat kain representative – one US veteran diplomat Kurt Volker.
“We need influential ‘Mr. Ukraine’ wit constant access to Trump ear,” Alyona Hetmanchuk tok.
Ukrainian officials dey wait anxiously for di opportunity to discuss specifics wit di new US administration, but realise say di process no go easy.
But as US media point out, e dey unlikely to dey easy for di Russians too.
Florida congressman Michael Waltz, wey Trump pick as national security adviser, and Florida senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state, na pipo wey dem consider good tin Ukraine, becos before now, dem two express support tough approach towards China, Iran and Russia.
Wia dis foto come from, Getty Images
E dey too early to draw conclusions about dia potential influence based on dia past votes and statements, political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko tok.
“Dia position don change small even wit Trump own,” im point out.
While officials for Kyiv ginger to build connections wit Trump new team, President Zelensky get high hopes for di last months of Joe Biden presidency.
Im don already realise some o dem wen President Biden agree to allow Ukraine us long-range missiles wey US provide for am to strike inside Russian territory, for one major change to long-standing policy.
Tori be say US go allow Kyiv to use ATACMS missiles only to hold onto di small area of Russian Kursk region wey Ukraine dey currently occupy.
Dis kain strikes dey fit no change di balance of power for di frontline, but e go almost certainly slow down Russian progress, at least for some parts of am.
As Ukraine and Russia dey wait di new US goment first steps regarding di ongoing war, one tin dey sure – any potential peace negotiations dey likely to dey complicated and long.
Both kontris and dia leaders, Presidents Zelensky and Putin get high stakes for di resolution of dis conflict, and dia future depend on how well dem come out of any tok.
Collage by Angelina Korba
