In his threat to slap hefty tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports to the U.S., president-elect Donald Trump lumped together the border issues of the two nations. Experts and politicians say it’s an apples-to-oranges comparison.
‘To equate the two borders is to, frankly, miss the point,’ former ambassador says
Rhianna Schmunk · CBC News
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Trump threatens 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico on 1st day in office
In a post on his Truth Social platform, U.S. president-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico until both countries stop what he called the ‘invasion’ of undocumented migrants and drugs crossing the U.S. border.
In a characteristically bombastic threat to slap hefty tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports to the U.S. once he takes office next year, president-elect Donald Trump said he was motivated by border issues between those countries and his own.
“As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before,” Trump wrote Monday night on Truth Social, his social media platform.
“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”
WATCH | Canada must address border issues, says former minister:
Canada’s ‘charm offensive’ won’t appease Trump tariffs: former minister | Canada Tonight
Former president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce Perrin Beatty says Canada needs to address underlying concerns of the incoming Trump administration, such as security at the border, as the ‘charm offensive’ will not be effective.
But though the post equated migration across Canada’s border to migration from Mexico, the numbers suggest the issue is akin to an apples-and-oranges comparison, former diplomatic officials and Canadian ministers said Tuesday.
“We, the United States, do have a significant challenge on our southern border. To equate the two borders is to, frankly, miss the point,” said Gordon Giffin, former U.S. ambassador to Canada.
“The dimension of it is not comparable at all and nor should the response to it be comparable.”
Illegal migration from Canada to U.S.
Illegal migration through Canada into the U.S. has grown in recent years.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers recorded nearly 200,000 encounters at the northern border between October 2023 and September 2024, according to department data. That is nearly double the number recorded during the same period in 2022, and six times the number seen in 2020.
The term “encounters” includes apprehensions, people who are deemed inadmissible and those who are expelled from the U.S.
That said, the number of incidents on the Canadian border last year amounted to barely one per cent of the total number of people stopped by the U.S. Border Patrol from trying to enter the U.S. in between checkpoints.
A federal source said Trudeau raised that fact with Trump during their call Monday night. Canada has also taken steps in recent months to address U.S. concerns, including bringing back visa requirements on travellers from Mexico, and announcing new immigration measures.
Numbers far greater on southern border
The numbers are significantly higher along the Mexican boundary.
U.S. officials recorded more than two million encounters along the Mexico border between October 2023 and September 2024 — 10 times the number at the Canadian border during the same period. Each of the two previous years also saw more than two million encounters along the southern border.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller said Tuesday that, in terms of numbers, there is no comparison between the flow of migrants entering the U.S. from Canada and those entering from Mexico.
“It’s the equivalent on a yearly basis with a significant weekend at the Mexico border.”
Miller added that it’s still a concern, regardless of the numbers.
“At the same time, it’s not something I want to not take seriously, because it is serious,” Miller said.
“We have a job to not make our problems the Americans’ problems and they have a job not to make their problems ours.”
Nations lumped together as political move, experts say
Tyler Meredith, a former fiscal policy adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, said Trump might have put the two nations in the same boat to increase his negotiating power over North America as a trade region.
“Although he’s punching it in the context of a border issue — and it a border issue for Mexico, much less so for Canada — what he’s really trying to do is open the door for a renegotiation of the [Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement|,” Meredith said.
Giffin said Trump might have done so to “appear to be balanced.”
“Many in Congress, for example, on the southern border argue that the northern border should be treated just the same — not because there’s any underlying facts to support it but just for symmetry as a political matter,” Giffin told CBC News Network on Tuesday.
WATCH | What the tariffs could mean for Canada:
What Trump’s 25% tariff could mean for Canada’s economy, currency | Canada Tonight
Ian Lee, associate professor at the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University, says Donald Trump’s proposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian products would be ‘catastrophic’ for the country’s economy and currency, causing ‘incalculable’ damage.
Also Tuesday, Canadian Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Canada shares many of the same concerns as the Americans when it comes to illegal migration, and drugs and other contraband making its way into the country.
“We totally understand the American concern around the security and integrity of the border. It’s a concern that obviously Canadians share. The Government of Canada has exactly those same concerns,” he told reporters in Ottawa.
“The good news is that, for decades, this collaborative work happening literally daily with American authorities and Canadian authorities has allowed us to keep both countries safe.”
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Rhianna Schmunk is a senior writer covering domestic and international affairs at CBC News. Her work over the past decade has taken her across North America, from the Canadian Rockies to Washington, D.C. She routinely covers the Canadian courts, with a focus on precedent-setting civil cases. You can send story tips to rhianna.schmunk@cbc.ca.
With files from Alexander Panetta
