UK weather: When will it stop raining and the summer improve?

Image source, PA Media

By Francesca Gillett

BBC News

For weeks now, the UK’s weather has been unsettled – with widespread rain, cooler temperatures and an autumnal feel.

This is all while much of southern Europe has been enduring dangerous, back-to-back heatwaves that have seen temperatures top 40C and large wildfires.

The two are linked – and crucially it’s down to where the jet stream is. So how long will this weather last?

“This week and for much of next week it looks as though the unsettled weather will continue for the UK – so there will be further showers or longer spells of rain and at times strong winds,” says Gemma Plumb, a BBC Weather forecaster.

Later this week, a change in airflow means temperatures will fall to below average in many areas. Temperatures are forecast to sit between 15 and 20C for the coming week.

“Any drier periods of weather for the UK next week are likely to be short-lived,” she adds.

This Wednesday is also set to be particularly windy across southern parts of the UK – with strong winds especially likely along the south coast and through the English Channel.

“It is quite unusual to get these types of storms in August,” says Gemma.

She explains it is because the jet stream – which flows high overhead and brings in high pressure, meaning dry and sunny weather – is not in the usual place.

The jet stream is normally to the north of UK but this year the jet stream is sitting to the south. “This has brought areas of low pressure and unsettled weather to the UK over the last few weeks and has brought the hot weather to southern Europe.”

Last summer’s record 40C temperature was also down to the jet stream, which swept up hotter air from the Equator. “We just haven’t been in that weather pattern this summer,” says the Met Office’s Graham Dixon.

It looks as though the unsettled weather will continue for the UK through much of August, says Gemma.

“There are signs that more prolonged drier, and slightly warmer, weather is possible later in the month, but more likely into September.”

The Met Office also says dry weather is likely to arrive in the UK at the end of August, although it is not expecting the kind of prolonged heat we saw last year.

“But there are some warmer interludes possible, more likely later in August,” said Stephen Dixon from the Met Office.

For now though, July ends as it has been – with more rain. Some places have even seen their wettest Julys on record, such as Castlederg in County Tyrone, NI, and Preston in north-west England. Both stations have seen two to three times the average July rainfall.

The wetter than usual weather has a very real impact on UK farmers, who say the prolonged rain can affect the quality of crops.

Wheat that would have been good enough to be milled into flour to make bread or biscuits, for example, is now only good enough for animal feed, says James Mills, a farmer from outside York. Other crops, like rapeseed, will start to sprout because of the warm and wet weather, again meaning the quality isn’t good enough.

And even if you do harvest the crops, the moisture in them is higher than it needs to be – so farmers are having to dry the grain, which is already more expensive because of diesel costs, he says.

“The last year comparable [to this] was 2012, so a decade ago,” says James. “Last year there was the heat. We seem to be having extremes.”

Image source, Shamrock_Sean

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